Let's kick it then...
The Federal Reserve (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Federal_Reserve) is a bit of a mystery to me. What do they do? From what I can gather, they are basically a bank for banks. They lend money to banks like Bank of America who lend money to companies and people like me. My question is where does the Federal Reserve get this money to lend to big banks? I think the answer is: they make it out of thin air. This seems crazy to me. Is this true economics PhD's?
That's pretty bad-ass if true. I wish I could just decide that I have a billion dollars and lend it to people and charge them interest. But let's take it a step further. If you can just make money out of thin air [side note: google "the Gold Standard" which we are NOT on], what's the point in charging interest to the banks you lend this made up money to? Those banks then charge interest to companies and people like me. So I'm paying interest for money that was basically free to someone else? Enter an interesting fact: "The U.S. Government receives all of the [Fed's] annual profits, after a statutory dividend of 6% on member banks' capital investment is paid, and an account surplus is maintained. The Federal Reserve transferred $78.4 billion to the U.S. Treasury in 2010" (source: Wikipedia).
So--
Winners - 1) US Government, 2) "member banks." Who are the member banks? Not so clear to me, but it seems like they are private banks like Bank of America.
Losers - me, US businesses borrowing money, and everyone else borrowing money
So you hear about the Fed having power over interest rates, raising them, lowering them etc. This is to control the economy in a way. If they lend money (which they have created out of thin air) to big banks without charging much interest, the big banks will lend that money to us at a low interest rate, and we'll use that money to buy shit. Bam, economy stimulated. If they raise the rates on the money they lend to big banks, the banks raise the rates for loans to us, and we stop buying shit. Pow, economy cooled down.
Right now the rates are really low. So what does that mean? The Fed is making lots of money out of thin air and lending it to banks to lend to us to spend. That's all sounds great, but making a ton of money out of thin air and just giving it away doesn't make us any better off. Remember my first post? Money has no value in and of itself. Creating a ton of money doesn't do anything but make the prices of real stuff like houses, food, etc. to go up (i.e. causes inflation). You and I have no power to stop this inflation because the decision to create all this money is not in our hands. Seems to me like if I'm the US Government or big banks, and I want some money for _____________ (project I don't want to raise taxes for / saving my bank from collapse), a great option is to make this money out of thin air. The catch is, you and I actually have to WORK (create something that actually has value) for our money to pay back these loans. We do not have the luxury of just deciding we have a billion dollars. So, does this inflation = secret tax? Sure would be convenient if you are a US Government politician. You get more money based on people who created real value to pay you the money, but you didn't raise taxes. Inflation happened. You don't control that. Do you???
Does this make sense? Could it be true or am I just a conspiracy theorist? I hope I'm wrong! Please tell me where I'm wrong.
So knowing this, can we somehow save ourselves? My idea: if we know the Fed is making money now, we know this WILL lead to inflation. If they are doing this at an unprecedented rate, we should expect really high inflation. So right now, stuff is cheap because we are basically in a recession, and money is being lent at low rates. In the future, if my assumptions are right, stuff is going to get more and more expensive quickly. So what should we do? Buy big ticket items NOW that are relatively expensive and will grow in value over time. BUY HOUSES. Am I right?
Please enlighten me homies.
Crickets... Looking for any input. including: "huh?" or "what?" or "dork!"
ReplyDeleteIs the government making money at an unprecedented rate? I looked at inflation rates over the last few years. It's pretty low. And yes, inflation is a secret, sneaky way of taxing me. Punks.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Enlightening is what I will be doing but I want to at least comment. I tend to lean toward the cynical and think this is all government conspiracy. If I can recommend a good book about the FED and it's origins I suggest "The Creature from Jekyll Island" This book lays out the foundation of the FED created by 7 wealthy US business men (Rockefeller and others) who at the time controlled 25% of the entire wealth in the US. Good read. I don't remember the particulars but I think they were still on some form of gold standard at the time so it kind of made sense at the time. If you actually have the money to lend then it's a good way to get even richer. As you pointed out when we ran out of gold back in the days of Nixon (I think) we pulled a switch-a-roo and dropped the gold standard and apparently nobody noticed. Somehow the value of the dollar stayed strong enought that we don't need gold. The value comes from the government. Basically the world is saying they feel the paper we print is almost as valuable as gold. I can't figue that out either but that's the only thing that drives it today. Apparently the world hasn't figured that out yet. Better quit blogging about it before my salary can't buy lunch.
ReplyDeleteJesse
I also wanted to take a shot at the inflation tax. I tend to ramble so if needed just tune me out but here goes. The inflation tax is what the government is trying to do right now and can't seem to make it happen because people won't buy anything. Make no mistake it's going to happen and here is why. When the value of the dollar inflates the debt the US owes ($14T and counting http://www.usdebtclock.org/ ) will artificially decrease. We basically borrowed money last year that was worth more than the same dollars we have to repay today. $100 yesterday is worth more than $100 today so we are basically trying to inflate the interest away as a government. This creates losers those that save money as opposed winners who are borrowing more like the government. Basically we get back to your last comment - go buy a house today but don't pay cash borrow as much as you can at 4.5% - inflation will outpace it by the time you hit the 30 year term anyway.
ReplyDeleteLike the blog enough to actually figure out how to post to it.
So heavy leveraging yourself to buy real appreciable assets with cheap fake money is the way to go. Sounds like it to me.
ReplyDeleteI would love to be a fly on the wall at the closed door meetings with Bernanke and the other higher ups, fair to say some shady stuff goes on and its probably a matter of time before the manipulation shows adverse effects. It will all be a matter of how well those effects can be contained.
@ Narbs - I got another post in mind for you....
ReplyDelete@ Jesse - I'm pumped to be getting the input. I have also heard about that book but never read it. I did watch some videos on youtube from the guy that wrote the book. Very interesting. Guy talks too much though (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLjZPTbRdG4). But, before we join the Tea Party, form a new country, and secede from the US, I'd like to keep in mind that once you have an idea that something is shady, it's easy to keep on thinking that and to see only the facts that support that. There is another side to this story:
"The reason the gold standard should horrify you, Parker says, is that in a financial crisis, like the one we just went through, it can make things worse. In fact, most economists agree that the gold standard was one of the causes of the Great Depression.
Parker says when you're in a situation like the Great Depression, what the Fed needs to do is put more money out into the economy to get things going again — to make it easier for businesses to borrow money and hire people. But if you're on the gold standard you can't do that. There's only so much gold in the world. That means there's only so much money." (http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/15/133662179/a-wingnut-argument-for-the-gold-standard)
@Kamm - I knew you would be on board!
This brings up a question that I always had, but could never wrap my mind around fully:
ReplyDeleteWhat makes a house an appreciable asset? Why would a house be worth more today, than when it was brand spankin' new?
Apart from factors that are largely outside of any one person's control, i.e. you got lucky (or were clear enough in your foresight) that there was a significant amount of development around your house makes the area more attractive than when you bought it, all I can come up with would be that damn inflation...
I hope I didn't wait to long to post this- I realize there has been another topic to consider...